One sentence summary – The Upper Midwest has experienced an active jet stream pattern in August, with heavy rainfall in some areas providing moisture for crops but also causing delays in harvests, while other areas faced abnormal dryness and drought conditions; cooler temperatures have reduced moisture stress but slowed crop growth, and the forecast predicts warmer and drier weather in the coming months, potentially leading to water shortages in some areas; in Illinois, the corn crop has faced various challenges this season, including heat stress, diseases, and insect damage, leading to reduced yield expectations.
At a glance
- The Upper Midwest has been experiencing an active jet stream pattern in August.
- Michigan has had heavy rainfall, causing localized standing water and delays in harvests.
- Some areas in western Michigan are facing abnormal dryness and drought.
- Temperatures in the past 30 days have been near normal to 2 to 4 degrees F below normal.
- The forecast calls for warmer and drier weather in Michigan, with potential water shortages in some areas.
The details
The Upper Midwest, including Michigan, has been experiencing an unusually active jet stream pattern during the first half of August.
Major troughing features and widespread rainfall were recorded on August 6-7, 11-12, and 14-15.
In Michigan, rainfall ranged from just under 2 inches to over 6 inches, primarily in central and southern Lower Michigan.
This heavy rainfall provided ample moisture for crops but also caused localized standing water and delays in wheat and forage harvests.
However, some western sections of the state faced abnormal dryness and moisture shortages, with 60% of the area categorized as abnormally dry or in drought.
Mean temperatures for the past 30 days ranged from near normal to 2 to 4 degrees F below normal.
Cooler weather conditions reduced moisture stress but also slowed crop growth and phenological development.
The forecast calls for a major change in the jet stream pattern, bringing warmer and drier weather to Michigan.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s long lead outlooks for fall suggest near- to above-normal temperatures and normal- to below-normal precipitation.
The September outlook predicts equal odds of below-, near-, and above-normal temperatures, along with normal- to below-normal precipitation.
Looking ahead to September through November, the outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures and normal- to below-normal precipitation.
These outlooks indicate the potential for continued water shortages in some areas, while others may benefit from recovering from heavy rains and fall harvest activities.
In Illinois, the 2023 corn crop has faced numerous challenging environmental conditions this season.
These include a cold spring frost, drought, rootless corn syndrome, derecho winds, hail, heavy rains, and 100-degree heat.
Heat stress has visibly impacted fields throughout central Illinois and beyond, with top dieback being a key evidence of the damage.
Top dieback in the crop can be attributed to heat stress, insects, diseases, or a combination of factors.
Anthracnose top kill, identified by black spores on the lower stalk and discoloration, is prevalent this season.
Fields sprayed with fungicide exhibit less anthracnose top kill, but fungicide applications do not completely halt the disease.
High temperatures have scorched many fields, especially those with shorter corn and upright leaf structures.
Fields that did not reach 95% light capture due to high temperatures experienced top kill.
Rain in late June and early July provided relief to the crop, but plant growth was already completed in many cases.
Corn planted after May 10 was still in the vegetative state when the June 29 derecho hit central Illinois, providing much-needed rain.
Later-planted corn reached 95% light capture and experienced less heat stress.
Hybrids with top dieback will reach black layer faster and may have reduced kernel depth.
Fields with heat-induced top kill may still maintain good stalk integrity, while fields with anthracnose top kill are likely to face more standability issues.
Farmers are advised to conduct stalk push tests to check for stalk buckling due to stress from top kill.
Yield estimates should be realistic to avoid disappointment during harvest.
According to the USDA-NASS report for September 5, 53% of the U.S. corn crop is rated as good to excellent, indicating a less than stellar outlook for crop yields.
Poor uniformity of stands and ears resulting from rootless corn syndrome and drought has affected yield expectations.
The crop exhibits uneven ears, with shorter plants showing half ears.
The Boots In The Field podcast offers two different methods of making yield estimates.
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| farmprogress.com |
|---|
| – Unusually active jet stream pattern in the Upper Midwest during the first half of August – Passage of major troughing features and widespread rainfall on Aug. 6-7, Aug. 11-12, and Aug. 14-15 – Rainfall totals ranged from just under 2 inches to over 6 inches across Michigan – Heavy rainfall in central and southern Lower Michigan provided ample moisture for crops but led to localized standing water and delays in wheat and forage harvests – Some western sections of the state experienced abnormal dryness and moisture shortages, with 60% of the state’s area categorized as abnormally dry or in drought – Mean temperatures for the past 30 days ranged from near normal to 2 to 4 degrees F below normal – Cooler weather reduced moisture stress but slowed crop growth and phenological development – Forecast calls for a major change in the jet stream pattern, bringing warmer and drier weather to Michigan – NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s long lead outlooks for fall suggest near- to above-normal temperatures and normal- to below-normal precipitation – September outlook for Michigan calls for equal odds of below-, near-, and above-normal temperatures and normal- to below-normal precipitation – September through November outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures and normal- to below-normal precipitation – Outlooks suggest continuing water shortages in some parts of the state but benefits for areas recovering from heavy rains and for fall harvest activities. |
| agweb.com |
|---|
| – The 2023 corn crop in Illinois has faced a variety of challenging environmental conditions this season. |
| – |
| The crop has experienced a cold spring frost, drought, rootless corn syndrome, derecho winds, hail, heavy rains, and 100-degree heat. – |
| The impact of heat stress is visible in fields throughout central Illinois and beyond, with top dieback being a key evidence of the damage. – Dieback in the crop can be caused by heat stress, insects, diseases, or a combination of these factors. |
| – Anthracnose top kill, characterized by black spores on the lower stalk and discoloration, is prevalent this season. |
| – Fields sprayed with fungicide show less anthracnose top kill, but fungicide applications do not completely stop the disease. |
| – High temperatures have scorched many fields, particularly those with shorter corn and upright leaf structures. – Fields that did not reach 95% light capture due to high temperatures suffered from top kill. |
| – Rain in late June and early July saved the crop, but plant growth was already finished in many cases. – Corn planted after May 10 was still in the vegetative state when the June 29 derecho hit central Illinois, providing much-needed rain. – Later-planted corn reached 95% light capture and experienced less heat stress. |
| – Hybrids with dieback in the top of plants will reach black layer faster and may have reduced kernel depth. – Fields with top kill from heat may still have good stalk integrity, while fields with top kill from anthracnose are likely to have more standability issues. |
| – Farmers should conduct stalk push tests to check for stalk buckling due to stress from top kill. |
| – Yield estimates should be realistic to avoid disappointment during harvest. |
| – |
| The USDA-NASS report for Sept. 5 showed a less than stellar outlook for crop yields, with 53% of the U.S. corn crop rated as good to excellent. – |
| The ratings for both corn and soybeans are the lowest for this time of year since 2012. – Poor uniformity of stands and ears due to rootless corn syndrome and drought has affected yield expectations. – |
| The crop has un-uniform ears, with shorter plants having half ears. |
| – Two different methods of making yield estimates are offered in the Boots In The Field podcast. |
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