One sentence summary – Southeast Asia is experiencing significant economic growth driven by a shift towards industrial production, leading to an increase in energy consumption, particularly in natural gas, with predictions suggesting a 37% rise in natural gas consumption in the region from 2022 to 2030, resulting in a substantial increase in LNG imports to meet the growing demand.
At a glance
- Southeast Asia is emerging as a significant driver of global economic growth.
- The region’s shift towards industrial production is fueling this growth.
- Natural gas consumption in Southeast Asia is expected to rise by 37% from 2022 to 2030.
- LNG imports in Southeast Asia are projected to increase by 78 billion cubic meters during the same period.
- China aims to increase its primary energy sourced from gas to 15% by 2030, creating opportunities for LNG exporters.
Southeast Asia is emerging as a significant driver of global economic growth.
This growth is primarily due to the region’s shift towards industrial production.
A significant increase in energy consumption is expected to fuel this growth.
Consumption of Natural Gas
Particularly, the consumption of natural gas is expected to rise.
Predictions suggest that from 2022 to 2030, the total natural gas consumption in Southeast Asia will rise by 37%.
To meet this rising demand, LNG imports in Southeast Asia are projected to grow substantially.
Import volumes are expected to increase by 78 billion cubic meters (BCM) during the same period.
Trends and Challenges
Several countries in the region are experiencing specific trends and challenges related to natural gas consumption and imports.
Thailand’s natural gas consumption has remained stable.
However, it witnessed a notable 21% increase in LNG imports in 2022.
This surge can be attributed to the decrease in domestic production and uncertainty surrounding gas imports from Myanmar.
Consequently, Thailand is expected to import more LNG in the future.
Singapore relies heavily on natural gas for electricity generation.
It has plans to increase LNG imports to meet its energy needs.
Domestic natural gas consumption in Malaysia and Indonesia limits their potential for exporting LNG.
Vietnam’s natural gas demand is expected to rise significantly.
However, its domestic gas fields are struggling to keep pace with the growing demand.
Due to a decline in domestic gas production, Myanmar is transitioning to become an LNG importer.
The Philippines is actively exploring new gas fields.
This is because the Malampaya gas field, its main source of gas, is expected to stop producing.
This search for new sources is driven by the need to secure future gas supply.
Japan, a former LNG exporter, is now shifting towards becoming an LNG importer.
It holds the potential to re-sell LNG to Southeast Asian countries.
Japan has been actively expanding its presence in Southeast Asia by constructing power plants and LNG receiving terminals.
Its investments in ASEAN terminals make it an influential player in the Southeast Asian gas market.
China has surpassed Japan as the world’s top LNG importer in 2021.
However, COVID-related measures reduced spot demand in 2022, resulting in a decrease in LNG imports.
Suppliers of LNG remain optimistic about China’s long-term demand for the fuel.
ExxonMobil expects China to have over 200 million tons of LNG import capacity by 2030.
The country aims to increase its primary energy sourced from gas to 15% by 2030, up from 9% in 2021.
Cheniere Energy also predicts substantial growth in China’s LNG market.
Potential imports could reach 100 million tons and even 130 million tons by the early 2030s.
China’s LNG importers have signed long-term contracts with suppliers like Qatar and the United States.
These contracts provide confidence in future demand.
Forecasts suggest that there will be a growing gap between China’s current contract LNG volume and future demand.
This gap could potentially reach 80 million tons by 2040.
Despite a temporary slowdown in demand due to economic factors, there is optimism that China’s LNG appetite will rebound.
Further growth is expected beyond 2030.
Southeast Asia’s increasing natural gas consumption, coupled with the region’s growing LNG imports, presents both challenges and opportunities for various countries.
As demand continues to rise, there is intense competition among LNG exporters worldwide to supply the Southeast Asian market.
The dynamics of this market are influenced by factors such as domestic production, import uncertainty, economic trends, and long-term contracts with major LNG importers like China and Japan.
Here are all the sources used to create this article:
A group of colorful gas pipelines connecting Southeast Asian countries, with a small boat carrying LNG containers sailing across the sea.
This section links each of the article’s facts back to its original source.
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|– Southeast Asia is seen as an engine of global economic growth due to the shift of industrial production to the region.|
|– Southeast Asian economic growth will be fueled by an increase in energy consumption, particularly natural gas.
|From 2022 to 2030, the total natural gas consumption in Southeast Asia is predicted to increase by 37%.
– LNG imports in Southeast Asia are expected to grow by 78 BCM during the same period.
|Thailand’s natural gas consumption has remained stable, but LNG imports increased by 21% in 2022.|
|– Thailand will import more LNG in the future due to the decrease in domestic production and uncertainty of gas imports from Myanmar.
– Singapore relies on natural gas for electricity generation and plans to increase LNG imports.
|– Malaysia and Indonesia’s domestic natural gas consumption will limit their exporting potential.|
|– Vietnam’s natural gas demand is expected to rise, but domestic gas fields are struggling to meet the growing demand.|
|– Myanmar is transitioning to become an LNG importer due to the decline in domestic gas production.|
|The Philippines is actively searching for new gas fields as the Malampaya gas field is expected to stop producing gas.
– Japan has the potential to re-sell LNG to Southeast Asian countries as they shift from being LNG exporters to importers.
|– Japan has been expanding its presence in Southeast Asian countries, constructing power plants and LNG receiving terminals.
– LNG exporters from around the world are reaching out to sell LNG to Southeast Asia.
|– China is actively cooperating with Southeast Asian countries and participating in international LNG trade.|
|– China, Japan, and South Korea have established good cooperative relationships with sellers in Southeast Asian countries.
– Japan is expected to be the most influential player in the Southeast Asian gas market due to its investments in ASEAN terminals.
|The competition for Southeast Asian markets is tense, and it is uncertain who will retain the leading position in the future.|
|– Suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are optimistic about China’s long-term demand for the fuel.
– China surpassed Japan as the world’s top LNG importer in 2021, but COVID measures reduced spot demand in 2022.
– China’s LNG imports reached nearly 79 million metric tons in 2021 but fell to 63 million tonnes in 2022.
– China’s LNG imports in the first seven months of 2023 were 39 million tonnes.
|– ExxonMobil sees China as a strong growth market and expects it to have over 200 million tons of LNG import capacity by 2030.
– China’s economic slowdown has affected spot LNG appetite, but there is optimism that demand will come back.
|– Exxon is exploring potential downstream LNG opportunities in China.
– China aims to source 15% of its primary energy from gas by 2030, up from 9% in 2021.
|– Cheniere Energy believes China will become a 100-million-ton market and could reach 130 million tons by the early 2030s.
– Chinese importers have signed long-term deals with suppliers like Qatar and the United States, providing confidence in future demand.
|There is still potential for Chinese buyers to have an appetite for new LNG contracts after 2030.|
|– Forecasts suggest a growing gap between China’s current contract LNG volume and future demand, reaching 80 million tons by 2040.
– China’s LNG demand is expected to grow by 5 million tons in 2023 and by 6-7 million tons year-on-year in 2024.
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