Strategy to Weaken Russian Aggression in Ukraine Emerges

Num relance

• Russian forces invaded Ukraine one year ago, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths, massive ethnic cleansing, and thousands of documented war crimes.
• The conflict has the potential to weaken the post-World War II international system and violate international humanitarian law.
• The Biden administration has built and sustained Western unity to provide military support to Ukraine and to impose sanctions on Russia.
• Ukraine needs more of the tools it needs to counterattack successfully, closing the land bridge and advancing into Crimea.
• The combination of powerful Ukrainian offensives into Crimea plus the growing mobilization of the West’s military-industrial base will maintain the incremental strategy.

Os detalhes

Russian Invasion of Ukraine

One year ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths, massive ethnic cleansing, and thousands of documented war crimes.

The conflict has the potential to weaken the post-World War II international system and violate international humanitarian law, as well as risk escalating to a NATO-Russian nuclear confrontation.

China may interpret a weak Western response as an invitation to move militarily against Taiwan.

Putin is driven by ego and the historic fears and legacies of three centuries of Russian imperialism.

Four Phases of War

The war has been waged in four phases, with a fifth phase currently underway.

Ukraine is struggling to hold its positions in Donbas, while building a counteroffensive strike force.

Ukraine is also struggling to gain and maintain superior battlefield intelligence, target Russian logistics and command and control, and create partisan resistance.

Western Response

The Biden administration has built and sustained Western unity to provide military support to Ukraine and to impose sanctions on Russia.

The emerging strategy seems aimed at “bleeding out” the Russian aggression, albeit at a very high cost in Ukrainian casualties.

Western concerns about Putin’s “red lines” and his nuclear threats have created an actual strategy of incremental reinforcement of Ukraine.

Ukraine needs more of the tools it needs to counterattack successfully, closing the land bridge and advancing into Crimea.

This includes tanks and armored vehicles, artillery, HIMARS, antiaircraft, fighter planes, self-propelled artillery, long-range rockets, fighter aircraft and modern attack helicopters.

Aiming military actions more directly at what Putin most values, Crimea, is a concrete, understandable and achievable military objective.

The combination of powerful Ukrainian offensives into Crimea plus the growing mobilization of the West’s military-industrial base will maintain the incremental strategy.

This strategy is aimed at weakening the Russian aggression, while protecting the post-World War II international system and international humanitarian law.